The Environmental Stake of Bitcoin Mining: Present and Future Challenges

The environmental impact of Bitcoin mining has raised severe concerns considering the expected growth of 30% by 2030. This study aimed to develop a Life Cycle Assessment model to determine the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions associated with Bitcoin mining, considering material requirements and energy demand. By applying the impact assessment method IPCC 2021 GWP (100 years), the GHG emissions associated with electricity consumption were estimated at 51.7 Mt CO2 eq/year in 2022 and calculated by modelling real national mixes referring to the geographical area where mining takes place, allowing for the determination of the environmental impacts in a site-specific way. The estimated impacts were then adjusted to future energy projections (2030 and 2050), by modelling electricity mixes coherently with the spatial distribution of mining activities, the related national targeted goals, the increasing demand for electricity for hashrate and the capability of the systems to recover the heat generated in the mining phase. Further projections for 2030, based on two extrapolated energy consumption models, were also determined. The outcomes reveal that, in relation to the considered scenarios and their associated assumptions, breakeven points where the increase in energy consumption associated with mining nullifies the increase in the renewable energy share within the energy mix exist. The amount of amine-based sorbents hypothetically needed to capture the total CO2 equivalent emitted directly and indirectly for Bitcoin mining reaches up to almost 12 Bt. Further developments of the present work would rely on more reliable data related to future energy projections and the geographical distribution of miners, as well as an extension of the environmental categories analyzed. The Life Cycle Assessment methodology represents a valid tool to support policies and decision makers.