We developed a storm surge ensemble prediction system (EPS) for lagoons and transitional environments. Lagoons are often threatened by storm surge events with consequent risks for human life and economic losses. The uncertainties connected with a classic deterministic forecast are many, thus, an ensemble forecast system is required to properly consider them and inform the end-user community accordingly. The technological resources now available allow us to investigate the possibility of operational ensemble forecasting systems that will become increasingly essential for coastal management. We show the advantages and limitations of an EPS applied to a lagoon, using a very high-resolution unstructured grid finite element model and 45 EPS members. For five recent storm surge events, the EPS generally improves the forecast skill on the third forecast day compared to just one deterministic forecast, while they are similar in the first two days. A weighting system is implemented to compute an improved ensemble mean. The uncertainties regarding sea level due to meteorological forcing, river runoff, initial boundaries, and lateral boundaries are evaluated for a special case in the northern Adriatic Sea, and the different forecasts are used to compose the EPS members. We conclude that the largest uncertainty is in the initial and lateral boundary fields at different time and space scales, including the tidal components.

Alessandri, J., Pinardi, N., Federico, I., Valentini, A. (2023). Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System for Lagoons and Transitional Environments. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 38(9), 1791-1806 [10.1175/WAF-D-23-0040.1].

Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System for Lagoons and Transitional Environments

Alessandri, Jacopo
Primo
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
;
Pinardi, Nadia
Secondo
Conceptualization
;
Valentini, Andrea
Writing – Review & Editing
2023

Abstract

We developed a storm surge ensemble prediction system (EPS) for lagoons and transitional environments. Lagoons are often threatened by storm surge events with consequent risks for human life and economic losses. The uncertainties connected with a classic deterministic forecast are many, thus, an ensemble forecast system is required to properly consider them and inform the end-user community accordingly. The technological resources now available allow us to investigate the possibility of operational ensemble forecasting systems that will become increasingly essential for coastal management. We show the advantages and limitations of an EPS applied to a lagoon, using a very high-resolution unstructured grid finite element model and 45 EPS members. For five recent storm surge events, the EPS generally improves the forecast skill on the third forecast day compared to just one deterministic forecast, while they are similar in the first two days. A weighting system is implemented to compute an improved ensemble mean. The uncertainties regarding sea level due to meteorological forcing, river runoff, initial boundaries, and lateral boundaries are evaluated for a special case in the northern Adriatic Sea, and the different forecasts are used to compose the EPS members. We conclude that the largest uncertainty is in the initial and lateral boundary fields at different time and space scales, including the tidal components.
2023
Alessandri, J., Pinardi, N., Federico, I., Valentini, A. (2023). Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System for Lagoons and Transitional Environments. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 38(9), 1791-1806 [10.1175/WAF-D-23-0040.1].
Alessandri, Jacopo; Pinardi, Nadia; Federico, Ivan; Valentini, Andrea
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
wefo-WAF-D-23-0040.1_compressed.pdf

Open Access dal 13/03/2024

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per accesso libero gratuito
Dimensione 776.44 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
776.44 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/944053
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 1
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 1
social impact