Assessing the spatial economic effects of marine conservation and offshore wind development on fisheries: A Bayesian network framework

Integrating economic considerations into spatial decision-making remains a central challenge in Marine Spatial Planning. However, frameworks specifically designed to analyse the economic implications of fisheries management under competing maritime uses remain scarce. This study develops and applies a novel spatially explicit Bayesian network to assess the direct economic effects of alternative management scenarios on fisheries. By modelling conditional dependencies among fishing effort, costs, and revenues, it enables uncertainty propagation and scenario-based inference under data-constrained conditions. The framework is applied to real-world management scenarios from the Italian Marine Spatial Plan for the Adriatic Sea, focusing on the establishment of new Marine Protected Areas and offshore wind farms. Results indicate that planned Marine Protected Areas overlap with valuable areas for small-scale fisheries, highlighting the need for management strategies that balance conservation and socioeconomic objectives. In contrast, large-scale fisheries show greater potential direct economic effects under the planned Natura 2000 areas, indicating the need for proactive stakeholder engagement. Offshore wind farm development is projected to generate no direct economic effects on small-scale fisheries, whereas large-scale fisheries are estimated to experience greater direct economic effects due to the loss of accessible fishing grounds. Overall, the framework advances spatial economic assessment within Marine Spatial Planning by enabling the identification of potential conflicts, supporting stakeholder engagement, and strengthening the evaluation of trade-offs among competing maritime uses.