Valuing public preferences by eliciting ecosystem services trade-offs for the extension and management of marine protected areas in Italy

Marine Protected Areas are central to Marine Spatial Planning strategies aimed at protecting biodiversity and sustaining ecosystem services, but their effectiveness ultimately depends on public support. This study investigates Italian citizens’ preferences for Marine Protected Areas expansion through a Discrete Choice Experiment conducted across three coastal zones, the Northern Adriatic Sea, the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, and the Strait of Sicily, selected for their distinct ecological and socio-economic profiles. Data were collected from 1961 valid respondents via an online survey stratified by age, gender, and income. The choice tasks presented respondents with policy alternatives defined by three attributes, Marine Protected Areas coverage, restriction levels, and an annual eco-tax. Responses were analysed using a mixed logit model to capture random preference heterogeneity and derive willingness to pay estimates. Findings provide novel quantitative evidence by linking household preferences to ecosystem service attributes and by examining regional differences. Results show that citizens strongly favour moderate restrictions over minimal or complete bans, with willingness to pay values up to €10.07 per household annually, and express positive but more modest support for expanding protected areas to 5–10 % coverage (willingness to pay up to €7.08). Regional heterogeneity emerged, with stronger support in northern zones compared to the more fisheries-dependent south, and pro-environmental attitudes were positively associated with preferences for stricter and larger Marine Protected Areas. Overall, the results offer quantitative economic evidence to support the design of socially acceptable conservation policies that align biodiversity targets with public priorities within the framework of sustainable Marine Spatial Planning.