Chasing net zero: An exploratory space-time analysis of European regions’ industrial carbon emissions

Achieving a net-zero target within the European Union remains a remarkable challenge. Existing literature has predominantly examined carbon emissions at the national level, overlooking sub-national variations crucial for effective mitigation strategies. Moreover, prior studies lack a comprehensive exploration of spatiotemporal interdependencies influencing emissions dynamics within regions. We address these gaps by employing an exploratory space-time data analysis (ESTDA) to a novel panel dataset spanning 13 years and comprising carbon emissions from 238 NUTS-2 regions across 27 EU countries. The results indicate a 33.6 % decline in carbon emissions, likely driven by energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployment driven by European policies. However, these measures may have reached their decarbonization limit, as regional disparities in industrial emissions are narrowing and stable emission patterns persist. The study findings also indicate polarized regional clusters, often spanning multiple Member States, which follow similar decarbonization trajectories. This study applies an advanced methodological framework to a novel dataset on industrial carbon emissions across EU regions, enabling the analysis of spatial and temporal interdependencies that shape decarbonization patterns. In terms of policy implications, the findings underscore the limitations of one-size-fitsall climate strategies and emphasize the need for targeted, region-specific interventions to effectively accelerate the transition toward climate neutrality.