We show that earthquakes in Greece can be ''predicted'' much more efficiently than VAN by anybody using the PDE earthquake bulletin. Our analysis is retrospective, but our scheme can be unambiguously tested against future seismicity. For the period from Jan. 1, 1987 to June 30, 1992 the rule developed in this paper ''predicts'' 9 of 12 large events in Greece, as opposed to (at most) 4 successes for VAN.
Mulargia, F., Marzocchi, W., Gasperini, P. (1996). VAN, Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game and Precursor candidacy and validation, The VAN case so far - Rebuttal to Replies I and II. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 23(11), 1339-1340 [10.1029/96GL01290].
VAN, Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game and Precursor candidacy and validation, The VAN case so far - Rebuttal to Replies I and II
Mulargia, F
Primo
Membro del Collaboration Group
;Marzocchi, WSecondo
Membro del Collaboration Group
;Gasperini, PUltimo
Membro del Collaboration Group
1996
Abstract
We show that earthquakes in Greece can be ''predicted'' much more efficiently than VAN by anybody using the PDE earthquake bulletin. Our analysis is retrospective, but our scheme can be unambiguously tested against future seismicity. For the period from Jan. 1, 1987 to June 30, 1992 the rule developed in this paper ''predicts'' 9 of 12 large events in Greece, as opposed to (at most) 4 successes for VAN.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
