The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats and open waters support a range of species and contribute to the region's ecological and economic significance. Unraveling the consequences of the ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential to ensure the future safeguard of this basin. To tackle this problem, we developed a biogeochemical model for the entire basin, with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km and 120 vertical levels, forced by the projections of atmosphere, hydrology and ocean circulation between 1992 and 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. The changes projected between 2031–2050 and 1992–2011 were evaluated on ecoregions characterized by different trophic conditions, identified using a k-medoid classification technique. The results point toward a generalized oligotrophication of the basin, especially intense in the northern estuarine areas, driven by a substantial decrease in river discharge projected for the rivers of the Po Plain. This scenario of unproductive and declining resources, together with the ongoing warming, salinization, and acidification of marine waters, cast doubt on the long-term resilience of the Northern Adriatic food web structure, which has evolved to thrive in high trophic conditions. The outcome of this study provides the stakeholders with a tool to understand how potential long-term decreases in the regimes of the Northern Adriatic Rivers could affect the marine ecosystem and its goods and services in the future.

Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems / Lorenzo Mentaschi, Tomas Lovato, Momme Butenschön, Jacopo Alessandri, Leonardo Aragão, Giorgia Verri, Roberta Guerra, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi. - In: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE. - ISSN 2624-9553. - ELETTRONICO. - 6:(2024), pp. 1338374.1-1338374.16. [10.3389/fclim.2024.1338374]

Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

Lorenzo Mentaschi
Primo
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
;
Jacopo Alessandri;Giorgia Verri;Roberta Guerra;Giovanni Coppini;Nadia Pinardi
Ultimo
Supervision
2024

Abstract

The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats and open waters support a range of species and contribute to the region's ecological and economic significance. Unraveling the consequences of the ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential to ensure the future safeguard of this basin. To tackle this problem, we developed a biogeochemical model for the entire basin, with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km and 120 vertical levels, forced by the projections of atmosphere, hydrology and ocean circulation between 1992 and 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. The changes projected between 2031–2050 and 1992–2011 were evaluated on ecoregions characterized by different trophic conditions, identified using a k-medoid classification technique. The results point toward a generalized oligotrophication of the basin, especially intense in the northern estuarine areas, driven by a substantial decrease in river discharge projected for the rivers of the Po Plain. This scenario of unproductive and declining resources, together with the ongoing warming, salinization, and acidification of marine waters, cast doubt on the long-term resilience of the Northern Adriatic food web structure, which has evolved to thrive in high trophic conditions. The outcome of this study provides the stakeholders with a tool to understand how potential long-term decreases in the regimes of the Northern Adriatic Rivers could affect the marine ecosystem and its goods and services in the future.
2024
Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems / Lorenzo Mentaschi, Tomas Lovato, Momme Butenschön, Jacopo Alessandri, Leonardo Aragão, Giorgia Verri, Roberta Guerra, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi. - In: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE. - ISSN 2624-9553. - ELETTRONICO. - 6:(2024), pp. 1338374.1-1338374.16. [10.3389/fclim.2024.1338374]
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Tomas Lovato, Momme Butenschön, Jacopo Alessandri, Leonardo Aragão, Giorgia Verri, Roberta Guerra, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Mentaschi2024_adriaClim.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per Accesso Aperto. Creative Commons Attribuzione (CCBY)
Dimensione 3.66 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
3.66 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/955372
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 1
social impact