VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game

We reassess the set of VAN predictions in the period 1987-1989 with the latest laws of the game [Varotsos et al., 1996]. This reassessment does not modify our previous conclusions: VAN predictions have alarm and success rates too low to accept them as candidate precursors, and a degree of time association with earthquakes which suggests rejection of any precursor nomination. At the same time, this reassessment confirms the tendency of predictions in the period 1987-1989 to significantly follow earthquakes, with 13 earthquakes tracked by a spatially close prediction within 11 days. A validation study of the independent set of VAN predictions in the period 1990-1992, leaving the laws of the game unchanged while restricting the operative region to account for network reduction, denies any significant association of VAN predictions with earthquakes, but confirms the tendency of VAN predictions to follow rather than precede earthquakes. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.