Mining the in-use stock of energy-transition materials for closed-loop e-mobility

The decarbonization of transportation is essential to achieve a carbon neutral planetary society. However, the turn to electromobility is based on advanced technologies (e.g., lithium-ions batteries) that tied our development to many functional materials with problematic supply. In this study, we apply prospective dynamic material flow analysis to explore the potentials for closing material cycles while meeting a full transition to electric for a set of energy-transition materials (ETMs) including lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and natural graphite. Three demand scenarios are applied to develop trajectories for ETM demand, their in-use stock, and derive the potentials to which recycling can substitute for virgin material extraction at the global scale to 2065. Our results estimate that ETM inflow to use could increase between 20 and 50 times by 2065. However, secondary supply will hardly enable the achievement of circularity in material cycles in the next decades so that the supply of ETMs will remain mainly based on primary material extraction. Nevertheless, from 2040 onwards, recycling volumes could meet up to more than 80% of demand and represent a viable alternative to mining. If the ideal scenario is realized, government policies could have the potential for achieving the dual goal of decarbonizing e-mobility and securing sustainable access to ETMs already in the middle of 2050s. However, the combined commitment and efforts across the value chain of policymakers, companies involved in the cycle, and consumers will be needed to fully realize the great potential for circular economy to work for e-mobility.