This paper aimed to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19, in the city of Bologna, the capital and largest city of the Emilia-Romagna Region in northern Italy. The study took place from February 1st, 2020 to November 20th, 2021 and accounted for space, sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of the resident population. A second goal was to derive a model for the level of risk of being infected by SARS-CoV-2 and to identify and measure the place-specific factors associated with the disease and its determinants. Spatial heterogeneity was tested by comparing global Poisson regression (GPR) and local geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) models. The key findings were that different city areas were impacted differently during the first three epidemic waves. The area-to-area influence was estimated to exert its effect over an area with 4.7 km radius. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity patterns were found to be independent of the sociodemographic and the clinical characteristics of the resident population. Significant single-individual risk factors for detected SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were old age, hypertension, diabetes and co-morbidities. More specifically, in the global model, the average SARS-CoV-2 infection rate decreased 0.93-fold in the 21–65 years age group compared to the >65 years age group, whereas hypertension, diabetes, and any other co-morbidities (present vs absent), increased 1.28-, 1.39-and 1.15-fold, respectively. The local GWPR model had a better fit better than GPR. Due to the global geographical distribution of the pandemic, local estimates are essential for mitigating or strengthening security measures.

Zeleke A.J., Miglio R., Palumbo P., Tubertini P., Chiari L., MODELS4COVID study group, et al. (2022). Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion at the city level using geographically weighted Poisson regression model: The case of Bologna, Italy. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH, 17(2), 1145-1145 [10.4081/gh.2022.1145].

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion at the city level using geographically weighted Poisson regression model: The case of Bologna, Italy

Zeleke A. J.;Miglio R.;Palumbo P.;Chiari L.;Carelli V.
Membro del Collaboration Group
2022

Abstract

This paper aimed to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19, in the city of Bologna, the capital and largest city of the Emilia-Romagna Region in northern Italy. The study took place from February 1st, 2020 to November 20th, 2021 and accounted for space, sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of the resident population. A second goal was to derive a model for the level of risk of being infected by SARS-CoV-2 and to identify and measure the place-specific factors associated with the disease and its determinants. Spatial heterogeneity was tested by comparing global Poisson regression (GPR) and local geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) models. The key findings were that different city areas were impacted differently during the first three epidemic waves. The area-to-area influence was estimated to exert its effect over an area with 4.7 km radius. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity patterns were found to be independent of the sociodemographic and the clinical characteristics of the resident population. Significant single-individual risk factors for detected SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were old age, hypertension, diabetes and co-morbidities. More specifically, in the global model, the average SARS-CoV-2 infection rate decreased 0.93-fold in the 21–65 years age group compared to the >65 years age group, whereas hypertension, diabetes, and any other co-morbidities (present vs absent), increased 1.28-, 1.39-and 1.15-fold, respectively. The local GWPR model had a better fit better than GPR. Due to the global geographical distribution of the pandemic, local estimates are essential for mitigating or strengthening security measures.
2022
Zeleke A.J., Miglio R., Palumbo P., Tubertini P., Chiari L., MODELS4COVID study group, et al. (2022). Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion at the city level using geographically weighted Poisson regression model: The case of Bologna, Italy. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH, 17(2), 1145-1145 [10.4081/gh.2022.1145].
Zeleke A.J.; Miglio R.; Palumbo P.; Tubertini P.; Chiari L.; MODELS4COVID study group; Carelli V.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
gh-17-2-1145.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per Accesso Aperto. Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale (CCBYNC)
Dimensione 1.41 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.41 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
gh-17-2-1145_appendix_updated.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per Accesso Aperto. Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale (CCBYNC)
Dimensione 439.79 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
439.79 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/916804
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact