Estimating Y-Str Mutation Rates and Tmrca Through Deep-Rooting Italian Pedigrees

In the population genomics era, the study of Y-chromosome variability is still of the greatest interest for several fields ranging from molecular anthropology to forensics and genetic genealogy. In particular, mutation rates of Y-chromosomal Short Tandem Repeats markers (Y-STRs) are key parameters for different interdisciplinary applications. Among them, testing the patrilineal relatedness between individuals and calculating their Time of Most Recent Common Ancestors (TMRCAs) are of the utmost importance. To provide new valuable estimates and to address these issues, we typed 47 Y-STRs (comprising Yfiler, PowerPlex23 and YfilerPlus loci, the recently defined Rapidly Mutating [RM] panel and 11 additional markers often used in genetic genealogical applications) in 135 individuals belonging to 66 deep-rooting paternal genealogies from Northern Italy. Our results confirmed that the genealogy approach is an effective way to obtain reliable Y-STR mutation rate estimates even with a limited number of samples. Moreover, they showed that the impact of multi-step mutations and backmutations is negligible within the temporal scale usually adopted by forensic and genetic genealogy analyses. We then detected a significant association between the number of mutations within genealogies and observed TMRCAs. Therefore, we compared observed and expected TMRCAs by implementing a Bayesian procedure originally designed by Walsh (2001) and showed that the method yields a good performance (up to 96.72%), especially when using the Infinite Alleles Model (IAM).