Closing the copper cycle in the EU-28: scenario analysis and potentials for GHG emissions reduction

Copper is widely used in modern society, finding application in traditional end-uses such as plumbing, infrastructure, and transportation, but it is also an essential material in emerging green energy technologies. Europe (i.e., EU-28) has modest natural deposits and strongly depends on imports to meet the domestic demand. In light of such an extended import reliance and possible supply shortages, end-of-life recycling can secure access to secondary copper forms and support the implementation of a circular economy. In addition, as copper recycling is generally less energy intensive than primary copper production, closing the elemental cycle through recycling would result in significant environmental benefits. However, despite a well-established industry network in the copper value chain, the EU-28 is still far from perfect recycling highlighting wide margins for improvements. Some of these potentials for copper circularity and environmental benefits were explored combining four well-regarded UNEP scenarios with material flow analysis. For each scenario, the copper demand and supply in the region was modeled to 2050. We commented the results in the case of stationary end-of-life recycling performance and under the hypothetical implementation of a near-perfect recycling condition. Life cycle assessment indicators were modeled to evaluate the resulting energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The results show that copper recycling can contribute significantly to reduce the energy requirements and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions associated with the regional copper industry. However, for three out of the four scenarios the current recycling performance seems not to be enough to close the copper cycle. Fundamental constraints are likely to limit the implementation of a circular economy unless dramatic changes occur in the current pattern of copper production, consumption and recycling at end-of-life.