La finanziariazzazione è alla base delle recenti dinamiche del prezzo del petrolio ?

This article examines the role of real variables in predicting the behavior of futures oil prices during the recent drop in oil prices. We focus on the WTI (Nymex) price, first position, and perform our analysis by running several VAR (Vector Autoregressions) models in order to test the relative importance of real variables on the dynamics of WTI prices. The results are that WTI future first position is strongly affected by longer maturity futures, but it is weakly affected by real variables. The real variables may affect more longer-term maturity futures which, wiithin the intrinsic dynamics linked to trading and financial activity, may impact on short term futures.