Prediction of outcomes in patients with Ph+ chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase treated with nilotinib after imatinib resistance/intolerance

The purpose was to assess predictive factors for outcome in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic phase (CML-CP) treated with nilotinib after imatinib failure. Imatinib-resistant and -intolerant patients with CML-CP (n=321) were treated with nilotinib 400 mg twice daily. Of 19 baseline patient and disease characteristics and two response end points analyzed, 10 independent prognostic factors were associated with progression-free survival (PFS). In the multivariate analysis, major cytogenetic response (MCyR) within 12 months, baseline hemoglobin ≥ 120 g/l, baseline basophils <4%, and absence of baseline mutations with low sensitivity to nilotinib were associated with PFS. A prognostic score was created to stratify patients into five groups (best group: 0 of 3 unfavorable risk factors and MCyR by 12 months; worst group: 3 of 3 unfavorable risk factors and no MCyR by 12 months). Estimated 24-month PFS rates were 90%, 79%, 67% and 37% for patients with prognostic scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively, (no patients with score of 4). Even in the presence of poor disease characteristics, nilotinib provided significant clinical benefit in patients with imatinib-resistant or -intolerant CML. This system may yield insight on the prognosis of patients.