Gli effetti della transizione demografica sulla finanza pubblica

The article examines the effects of demographic transition on public finances, with particular attention to Italy. After outlining the main trends (low fertility, increasing longevity, and population ageing), it analyzes the key channels through which demographics affect economic growth, primarily the reduction in labor supply and changes in saving and investment behavior. The analysis of public expenditure shows that, in the baseline scenario, the impact on public finances appears manageable, but also highlights significant risks related to uncertainty. Ageing also affects public revenues by altering the composition of tax bases. Under the new European framework, the future costs of ageing are incorporated into fiscal rules, requiring upfront fiscal adjustments that are potentially inconsistent with the need for long-term structural interventions.