Mapping the Risk of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Among Girls: Insights from Migrant Communities Living in Italy

This study investigates individual and contextual factors associated with support for the continuation of female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) among migrant communities living in Italy to provide a map for risk prevention among children. Using survey data on 999 women originating from eight practicing African countries, we applied model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) to estimate a logistic regression tree. Independent variables include age at arrival, years spent in Italy, education, personal experience of FGM/C, and birthplace. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity across communities. While age at arrival played a minimal role, education and length of stay in Italy were associated with lower predicted probabilities of supporting continuation, with birthplace and personal experience of FGM/C being associated with higher predicted probabilities in specific subgroups. The estimated model was used to construct a predictive risk map. The highest predicted risk was found for girls whose mothers originate from Burkina Faso, Egypt, and Nigeria, with a low educational level, and who have themselves experienced the practice. Interestingly, an association with being cut (vs. not having undergone the practice) has been found across all originating countries, but not in Burkina Faso. Somalian, Eritrean, and Ethiopian girls, regardless of individual-level variables, had only a mild risk of undergoing the practice. Our findings demonstrate that predictive risk mapping can serve both as a social indicator for monitoring harmful practices and as a practical instrument to inform culturally sensitive prevention and policy interventions, provided that its results are interpreted as exploratory and not suitable for deterministic classification of individuals or communities.