Fairness and pitfalls of the Italian waiting list for elective liver transplantation: The ECALITA registry study

Background: The challenge of transplant waiting-lists is to provide organs for all candidates while maintaining efficiency and equity. Aims: We investigated the probability of being transplanted or of waiting-list dropout in Italy. Methods: Data from 12,749 adult patients waitlisted for primary liver-transplantation from January 2012 to December 2022 were collected from the National Transplant-Registry.The cohort was divided into Eras:1 (2012–2014);2 (2015–2018);and 3 (2019–2022). Results: The one-year probability of undergoing transplant increased (67.6 % in Era 1vs73.8 % in Era 3,p < 0001) with a complementary 46 % decrease in waiting-list failures. Patients with hepatocellular-carcinoma were transplanted more often than cirrhotics[at model for end-stage liver-disease (MELD)-15:HR = 1.28,95 %CI:1.21–1.35;at MELD-25:HR = 1.04,95 %CI:0.92–1.19) and those with other indications (at MELD-15:HR = 1.27,95 %CI:1.11–1.46) across all eras. Candidates with Hepatitis-B-virus (HBV)related disease had a greater probability of transplant than those with Hepatitis-C virus-related (HR = 1.13,95 %CI:1.07–1.20), alcohol-related (HR = 1.13,95 %CI:1.05–1.21), and metabolic-related (HR = 1.18,95 %CI:1.09–1.28)disease. Waiting-list failures increased by 27 % every 5 MELD-points and by 14 % for every 5-year increase in recipient-age and decreased by 10 % with each 10-cm increase in stature. Blood-group O patients showed the highest probability of waiting-list failure (HR = 1.28,95 %CI:1.15–1.43). Conclusions: Liver-transplantation waiting-list success-rates have significantly improved in Italy, with patients with hepatocellular-carcinoma and/or HBV-related diseases being favored. High MELD-score, old-age, short-stature, and blood-group O were significant risk-factors for waiting-list failure. Efforts to improve organ-allocation and prioritization-policies are underway.