I find that under-reaction is a robust response to model misspecification, rewarded by financial markets, rather than an “irrational” attitude that leads to extinction. When a Bayesian agent trades with an under-reacting agent who has access to the same information, there are no paths on which the under-reacting agent loses all his wealth to the Bayesian. Conversely, the Bayesian agent loses all his wealth to the under-reacting agent in misspecified learning settings, provided that a combination of parameters is more accurate than any single parameter in the support, and the under-reaction is sufficiently strong.

Massari, F. (2025). Under-reaction: Irrational behavior or robust response to model misspecification?. ECONOMIC THEORY, online first, 1-25 [10.1007/s00199-025-01677-x].

Under-reaction: Irrational behavior or robust response to model misspecification?

Filippo Massari
2025

Abstract

I find that under-reaction is a robust response to model misspecification, rewarded by financial markets, rather than an “irrational” attitude that leads to extinction. When a Bayesian agent trades with an under-reacting agent who has access to the same information, there are no paths on which the under-reacting agent loses all his wealth to the Bayesian. Conversely, the Bayesian agent loses all his wealth to the under-reacting agent in misspecified learning settings, provided that a combination of parameters is more accurate than any single parameter in the support, and the under-reaction is sufficiently strong.
2025
Massari, F. (2025). Under-reaction: Irrational behavior or robust response to model misspecification?. ECONOMIC THEORY, online first, 1-25 [10.1007/s00199-025-01677-x].
Massari, Filippo
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/1049158
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