After dropout: Social stratification and the dynamics of educational re-entry in Spain

This study investigates how social origin shapes second-chance educational trajectories among early school leavers in Spain. Specifically, we focus on youth who exited compulsory lower secondary education (Educaci´on Secundaria Obligatoria, ESO) without obtaining the basic credential. Using nationally representative longitudinal data and applying sequence analysis, event history models, and multinomial logistic regressions, we examine patterns of re-engagement, timing, and final educational outcomes. The results reveal strong and persistent stratification by parental education. Young people from tertiary-educated families are more likely to return to formal education, to re-engage earlier, and to pursue more coherent and upward-oriented vocational pathways. These findings extend the theory of compensatory advantage to a highly selected and vulnerable group, showing that class-based expectations remain remarkably resilient: when academic routes become inaccessible, advantaged families redirect their children toward more feasible yet still advantageous vocational alternatives. The analysis also highlights how opportunity structures shape these trajectories. Labour-market participation delays educational return for all early school leavers, but it also attenuates class differences by reducing reliance on family background; by contrast, unemployment magnifies social-origin gaps. Finally, the expansion of Basic Vocational Training (VT) has facilitated access to second-chance education, yet its role remains ambivalent: while it provides a route to qualification, it frequently acts as a de facto dead end for disadvantaged youth, many of whom do not progress to Medium or Higher VT. Overall, the study underscores the cumulative and classcontingent nature of second-chance opportunities and demonstrates how inequalities are reproduced beyond the initial moment of school leaving.