The Worse, the Better? The Daily Incidence of the COVID-19 Pandemic Influenced the Rally Effects it Fostered

With this study, we aimed to deepen the knowledge of the processes beyond the rally effects with a dynamic view and analyse the relationship between the daily incidence of COVID-19 and trust in institutions. To this end, we conducted three multilevel models using the ResPOnsE COVID-19 dataset (quota sample of the Italian population surveyed in four waves, rolling cross-section structure, total N = 29,978). In the first five months of the pandemic, the daily incidence of the outbreak, operationalised as the number of new COVID-19 cases on a given day (Level-2 variable), was positively associated with trust in the Italian parliament and in the Italian police and negatively associated with trust in the European Union. Furthermore, trust in these institutions was negatively related to psychological distress and positively related to compliance with the protocol established by the government to fight the pandemic, both in the first months of the pandemic and in the subsequent waves. Strengths, limitations and possible developments of this study are discussed.