Assessing the evolution of Public Transportation demand over time based on real data through survival analysis in Bologna, Italy

Public Transportation (PT) is a universal service in most countries, and it is acknowledgedfor its social and environmental role in enhancing accessibility and promoting a sustain-able transport system. However, when disruptions alter the service, the level of service(LoS) can be massively affected. Consequently, the perceived quality can be influenced,and users can be encouraged (or forced) to modify their subsequent modal choice, inaccordance with the users’ socioeconomic profile. A survival analysis, namely a Cox proportional hazards model, was tested in Bologna, Italy, using real data provided by TPERS.p.A, specifically Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counter(APC). This analysis aimed to assess the variations in demand over time taking into ac-count variables related to the socioeconomic characteristics of the demand and severalservice attributes. The results contribute to the literature in several ways. Firstly, theyconfirm the predominant role of PT in the modal alternative spectrum of disadvantagedusers. Secondly, they provide insights into the perception of quality service among different user categories, including commuters and non-frequent users.