Untangling the relationship between smoking and systemic sclerosis: an analysis of the EUSTAR cohort

Objectives To untangle the association between smoking and systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods In the European Scleroderma Trials and Research cohort, the autoantibody status was compared between ever-smokers and never-smokers. Time until disease progression was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox models were built to investigate the influence of smoking over 15 years of follow-up. All analyses were performed for the total cohort and stratified for sex and for positivity of anti-centromere (ACA) and anti-topoisomerase antibodies (ATA). Results Overall, 12 314 patients were included in the study. Of these, 10 393 were women (84%), 4637 were ACA-positive (38%), 3919 were ATA-positive (32%) and 4271 (35%) were ever-smokers. In men, but not in women, smoking was associated with mortality (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.16, p=0.001). Ever-smoking women were at higher risk for skin progression (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.22, p=0.046) and for 'any organ progression' (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.13, p=0.036). In women, 34% of never-smokers were ATA-positive compared with 21% of ever-smokers (p<0.001). In the group of ever-smokers, higher exposure rates, reflected by the number of pack-years (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99, p<0.001) and by smoking duration (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.97, p<0.001), were associated with lower frequency of ATA. In ACA-positive patients, the risk of mortality (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.63, p=0.033), cardiac involvement (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.43, p=0.001), skin progression (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.42, p=0.018) and 'any organ progression' (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.24, p=0.002) was increased among smokers. In ATA-positive smoking patients, mortality (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.78, p=0.006), skin progression (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.37, p=0.020) digital ulcers (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.34, p=0.029) and 'any organ progression' (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.22, p=0.048) occurred more frequently. Conclusions Our stratified analysis demonstrates that smoking is associated with an increased risk for mortality in male SSc patients but not in women. Strikingly, smoking is associated with lower prevalence of ATA positivity, in particular in women. In both ATA-positive and ACA-positive patients, smoking is a risk factor for mortality, skin progression and 'any organ progression'.