Long-Term Urban and Population Trends in the Southern Mesopotamian Floodplains

The processes of long-term urbanization in southern Mesopotamia are still insufficiently investigated, even though recent studies using large datasets and focusing on neighboring regions have paved the way to understanding the critical role of multiple variables in the shaping of settlement strategies by ancient human societies, among which climate change played an important role. In this paper, we tackle through a novel methodology these issues by analyzing, within the new FloodPlains Web GIS project, a conspicuous amount of archaeological evidence collected over the past decades at approximately 5000 sites in southern Mesopotamia. We have measured modifications over time in a variety of demographic proxies generated through probabilistic approaches: our results show that the rapid climate changes, especially those that occurred around 5.2, 4.2, and 3.2 ka BP, may have contributed—in addition to other socioeconomic factors—to triggering the main urban and demographic cycles in southern Mesopotamia and that each cycle is characterized by specific settlement strategies in terms of the distribution and the dimension of the urban centers.