Speaking of Civilians: Automated Text Analysis of the United Nations’ Framing of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

Since the end of the Cold War, the protection of civilians has increased its weight on the United Nations (UN) agenda. This article (1) maps the evolution of civilian protection within the UN framework as an indicator of its shifting priorities, (2) identifies breakpoints in the prevalence and character of the protection discourse, and (3) explores how internal processes of policy development and real-world triggers (namely conflicts and peacekeeping operations) shaped this transformation. The article uses Structural Topic Modeling (STM) to analyze an original corpus of Security Council and General Assembly resolutions on complex humanitarian emergencies since 1990. The analysis uncovers two distinct forms of protection, labeled as “Ground protection” and “Political-legal protection”, which are characterized by contrasting temporal and geographic trajectories. Moreover, critical junctures in the protection rhetoric (during the years 2000, 2005, and 2008) coincide with policy watersheds rather than conflict outbreaks or trends in peacekeeping deployment. This article offers a comprehensive analysis of the intricate evolution of civilian protection using text-as-data methods, which uses its theory-building design to encourage further explorations on the interplay between internal and external factors in shaping its progression within the UN framework.