The potential recording of North Ionian Gyre’s reversals as a decadal signal in sea level during the instrumental period

In recent decades, the north Ionian Sea, central Mediterranean Sea, has witnessed shifts in surface current circulation from cyclonic to anticyclonic and vice versa at the quasi-decadal scale, a phenomenon termed the North Ionian Gyre (NIG) reversal. This process impacts parameters such as sea level by altering thermohaline properties and redistributing water masses at the sub-basin scale. Previous studies have shown that during anticyclonic (cyclonic) phases, the Ionian sea-level trend is falling (rising), the opposite of what is observed in other Mediterranean sub-basins. Assuming that sea level records reversals, this study employed signal decomposition to analyze satellite altimetry data and tide gauge observations across the region, some dating back to the 1900s. A distinct quasi-decadal periodicity emerges as the second dominant oscillatory mode from all independent observations, aligning its peaks and troughs (i.e., changes in sea-level trend) with known NIG reversals and associated changes in the state of North Ionian vorticity. Furthermore, this mode from altimetry data clearly depicts the spatial variability of sea level attributed to the opposite NIG states. This periodicity appears coherent among different sub-basins within the domain, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, with a shared generalized out of phase and weakening occurred from the 1930s to the 1950s. This study presents a century-scale reconstruction of NIG reversals, contributing to the understanding of this phenomenon prior to 1987 using direct observations from sea-level data.