Tsunamigenic mass-failure scenarios in the Palinuro volcano chain

The Palinuro volcanic chain is located nearly 80 km offshore the Campania coasts (Italy), in the southern sector of the Tyrrhenian Sea. 15 distinct volcanic edifices have been recently detected. The presence of shallow seismicity and active hydrothermal activity suggests that this large volcanic chain is still active. Specific sectors of the complex show the existence of ongoing slope instability. Thus, the chance of mass movements following seismic or volcanic activity cannot be ruled out. Stability analysis for typical seismic loads in such a volcanic area has been performed. Three mass failure scenarios have been reconstructed through numerical models in the weaker sections found. The tsunami triggered by each slide has been simulated, and large waves have been found in two of the three hypothesized scenarios. For the biggest slide of 2.4 km3, waves as high as 6 m could reach portions of the Calabria region coasts.