Prediction of the infarct size by the serum levels of creatine kinase. A new methodological method [LA PREVISIONE DELL'AREA INFARTUATA DAI LIVELLI SIERICI DI CREATINCHINASI. NUOVA PROPOSTA METODOLOGICA]

A logistic equation is proposed as a new mathematical model describing the course of the ascending branch of the serum creatine kinase curve. The prediction is based on the identification of the infection point of the ascending branch of the serum CK curve. The enzyme activity corresponding to this point is half the maximal one. In 14 patients with acute myocardial infarction, infarct size (CK-g-Eq) was calculated by the method of Shell et al. In these patients the average differences between observed and predicted parameters were respectively: -0.64 ±2.13 h for the maximal activity time; 16.57 ± 53.15 mU/ml for the maximal activity and 0.02 ± 2.44 CK-g-Eq for the infarct size. It can be observed that the average of the per cent differences between observed and predicted infarct size was 1.10 ± 5.31% and the maximal per cent difference only +10.40%.