Change and stability of migration intentions. Evidence from Italy

Due to a lack of relevant data, very few empirical studies have examined the changes in and stability of secondary migration intentions. We aim to fill this gap by analysing return migration intentions among international migrants in Italy. Data are drawn from the cross-sectional SCIF survey conducted by ISTAT in 2011–2012. Our findings reveal that migration intentions at the beginning of the migratory experience tend to differ from those measured at more advanced migration stages (i.e. at the time of the survey). In particular, intentions to return seem less stable than intentions to stay. When confirming intentions to return or remain, critical factors include financial stability, family situation and ties with the country of origin and destination. Additionally, having an Italian partner, a partner living in Italy, and a positive self-assessed family financial condition are positively associated with transitioning from a temporary plan to a permanent settlement intention.