Thermo‐Hydro‐Mechanical Model and Caprock Deformation Explain the Onset of an Ongoing Seismo‐Volcanic Unrest

Modeling seismicity at volcanoes remains challenging as the processes that control seismic energy release due to fluid transport, heat flow, and rock deformation are firmly coupled in complex geological media. Here, we couple fluid-flow and mechanical (deformation) simulators (TOUGHREACT– FLAC3D) to reproduce fluid-induced seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy) in isothermal (HM) and nonisothermal (THM) conditions. The unique ability of the Campi Flegrei caprock to withstand stress induced by hot-water injections is included in the model parametrization. After pore pressure accumulation is guided by a combination of thermal and hydromechanical interactions, contrasting compressive and extensional forces act on the basal and top parts of the caprock, respectively. Then, pressure perturbation and caprock deformation induce fractures that allow hot fluids uprising to pressurize the overlying fault, driving it toward failure and triggering seismicity. Under similar mechanical boundary conditions, the induced thermal effects prompt seismic slip earlier but with higher seismic magnitudes when (1) thermal equilibrium is preserved and (2) the thermal contrast is enhanced due to increased fluid injection temperatures. The results indicate that numerical models of volcano seismicity must consider the influence of rock-sealing formations to obtain more robust, accurate, and realistic seismic predictions at volcanoes. The proposed models satisfactorily reproduce the magnitude– depth distribution of the swarm (October 5, 2019), preceding the two strongest earthquakes recorded in 35 years at the caldera (3.1 and 3.3—on December 6, 2019, and April 26, 2020, respectively) using hot- water injection from depth.