Design, implementation and assessment of a targeting mechanism in a college savings program

Percorsi is a matched savings program aimed at helping students from low-income households attend college. Previous experimental research has demonstrated the positive effects of the program on college enrollment and persistence. This paper investigates the extent to which these experimental results are attributable to the applied targeting strategy: students were admitted to the study through a targeting mechanism based on household income and on a predictive model of university enrollment probability. Applicants with a very high predicted university enrollment probability and those who revealed no intention of going to university were excluded from the program. The authors assess the performance of this approach by comparing cost-effectiveness estimates against simulated scenarios, showing that both the implemented and a simplified targeting yield a cost-effectiveness gain over a no targeting scenario. The study makes the case for an increased use of prior knowledge and collaboration between researchers and program managers to enhance programs’ cost-effectiveness.