From ballots to bullets. Libyan 2012 elections as the origin of the unachieved transition

This chapter is concerned with the following questions: what problems affect planning and implementation processes? What factors impact the elections regarding democratization and reconciliation processes? The chapter contends that Libyan instability has its roots in the rules of the game and processes established for the 2012 parliamentary elections. In particular, elections preparations and results paved the way for the emergence of long-lasting cleavages that not only exacerbated pre-existing frictions but also did not allow for the overcoming of new inevitable post-revolutionary divisions. Thus, the 2012 Libyan elections did not erase and substitute older societal deep rifts, but on the contrary, they amplified their reach. Against this background, new transitional institutions did not emerge as mediators between competing parties and could not agree on a unifying national interest or the necessity for the monopoly in the use of force. The chapter will focus on some events that unfold before and after the elections. Electoral law set in preparation for the elections and the parliamentary system emerged right after, along with the political choices made by transitional institutions concerning the security sector, amplified pre- existing exclusionary politics and reinforced local-based power centres. In addition to that, the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood party, Salafi movements and organised extremist groups reinforced an ideological cleavage that arose the concerns not only of domestic political actors but also of several external actors, who eventually directly participated in the disruption of the transition and the civil conflicts resulting from its collapse.