Understanding the Distributions of Benthic Foraminifera in the Adriatic Sea with Gradient Forest and Structural Equation Models

Abstract: In the last three decades, benthic foraminiferal ecology has been intensively investigated to improve the potential application of these marine organisms as proxies of the effects of climate change and other global change phenomena. It is still challenging to define the most important factors affecting foraminiferal communities and derived faunistic parameters. In this study, we examined the abiotic-biotic relationships of foraminiferal communities in the central-southern area of the Adriatic Sea using modern machine learning techniques. We combined gradient forest (Gf) and structural equation modeling (SEM) to test hypotheses about determinants of benthic foraminiferal assemblages. These approaches helped determine the relative effect of sizes of different environmental variables responsible for shaping living foraminiferal distributions. Four major faunal turnovers (at 13–28 m, 29–58 m, 59–215 m, and >215 m) were identified along a large bathymetric gradient (13–703 m water depth) that reflected the classical bathymetric distribution of benthic communities. Sand and organic matter (OM) contents were identified as the most relevant factors influencing the distribution of foraminifera either along the entire depth gradient or at selected bathymetric ranges. The SEM supported causal hypotheses that focused the factors that shaped assemblages at each bathymetric range, and the most notable causal relationships were direct effects of depth and indirect effects of the Gf-identified environmental parameters (i.e., sand, pollution load Index–PLI, organic matter–OM and total nitrogen–N) on foraminifera infauna and diversity. These results are relevant to understanding the basic ecology and conservation of foraminiferal communities