The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead.We use twelve different models, from simpleARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods and periods.Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimationmethod and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them.

Forecasting Monthly Industrial Production in Real-Time: From Single Equations to Factor-Based Models

GOLINELLI, ROBERTO;
2010

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead.We use twelve different models, from simpleARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods and periods.Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimationmethod and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them.
G. Bulligan ; R. Golinelli; G. Parigi
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/91190
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