You can’t export that! Export ban for modern and contemporary Italian art

Since 1939, an artwork in Italy can be subject to an “export veto” if it was created more than 50 years before the date of sale by an artist who is no longer living at the time of the sale. When the Italian bureau decides to exercise its right to veto exportation, these artworks cannot circulate outside the territory of Italy. Using original data from a hand-collected dataset covering all artworks made by non-living modern and contemporary Italian artists, auctioned at Christie’s and Sotheby’s in London and Milan between 2012 and 2016, we estimate a threshold model to consider the effect of the export veto law on price while controlling for the potential presence of a sample selection bias. We found that, while artwork prices are increasing in the time span between the year of creation and the date of sale, this effect reverses for artworks sold in Italy and created more than 50 years before the sale date. A similar pattern is also found in pre-sale estimates fixed by the auction houses, suggesting they exhibit rational behaviour in anticipating the export veto effect.