How the Energy Price Variability in Italy Affects the Cost of Building Heating: A Trnsys-Guided Comparison between Air-Source Heat Pumps and Gas Boilers

The paper investigates the variation in building thermal energy demand for different indoor air set-point temperature and presents an economic analysis comparing the cost of a heating generation system based on an air-to-water heat pump and a gas boiler. Dynamic simulations were performed considering three different residential building characteristics of the Italian building stock placed in different Italian municipalities: Milan, Rome and Naples. An economic analysis was carried out considering the gas and electricity prices related to the years 2019–2022 provided by Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment (ARERA). The analysis showed the competitiveness of the heat pump compared with the gas boiler as a heating generation system in terms of annual costs for heating in almost all the scenarios considered and also showed an important reduction in building thermal energy demand if the set-point temperature was reduced, even by 1 ◦C.