Predicting the Evolution of Sports Federation Membership: {AnImportant} Tool to Asses National Governing Bodies' Strategic Planning

Quantifying the potential market of sports licenses is key in order for National Governing Bodies of sport (NGBs) to beable to design good strategic planning. We compared the classical methods of univariate prediction and the Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (ARIMA) methods. Reliability of the available data was verified with the Time Series Regression with ARIMANoise, Missing and Outliers (TRAMO) method, and the existence of a trend was verified using Daniel’s test. For the purposes of thisstudy—the researches collected and analysed secondary data from a 40-year series in 45 sports in Spain covering a very long periodof time in a variety of sport disciplines. The study shows that, with the available data, short- and mid-term forecasting is possible in anumber of sports, but not in all of them. It also proves that Holt’s classical method of exponential smoothing is the one that yieldsbest results. Golf, Basketball, Athletics and Hunting NGB show worrying prospects of decline levels and need an immediate changein the strategic plans. Other than for forecasting the evolution of athletes in the mid-term in order to improve strategic planning inNGBs, the present findings can be useful for public authorities to define their aid policies for NGBs, and they can also helpcompanies in the industry to anticipate market developments (12) (PDF) Predicting the Evolution of Sports Federation Membership: An Important Tool to Asses National Governing Bodies’ Strategic Planning. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301677038_Predicting_the_Evolution_of_Sports_Federation_Membership_An_Important_Tool_to_Asses_National_Governing_Bodies'_Strategic_Planning [accessed Nov 18 2022].