Evaluating Viability of Woodland Caribou in Banff and Jasper National Parks

Recovery of endangered species may require a combination of protection and conservation action. In Banff National Park, the southernmost population of woodland caribou in Alberta was extirpated by an avalanche in April 2009. Concurrently, two of three populations in neighboring Jasper National Park have declined to alarming numbers (≤10). These trends reflect an uncertain future for these populations of woodland caribou despite protection within Canada’s Rocky Mountain national parks. We used population viability analysis to assess the potential for caribou persistence in Banff and Jasper National Parks with and without translocation‐based management. We constructed a female‐based projection matrix to model caribou life history and population growth among the Banff, Brazeau, Maligne, and Tonquin populations. Input vital rates included population‐specific estimates of mean adult female survival and calf/cow ratio‐based estimates of mean fecundity, with process variance isolated for each. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population within Jasper is likely to remain viable without management action. However, almost certain extirpation is predicted for the Brazeau and Maligne populations, with median times to extinction of 16 years and low likelihoods of persistence even after translocation efforts. Simulations reintroducing 45 female caribou into Banff resulted in a 66–99% chance of ≥8 females remaining after 20 years, making Banff a candidate for reintroduction. However, before translocations are adopted as a recovery tool, we encourage validation of our assumptions that the original causes of extirpation have been addressed and consideration of the challenges of conducting reintroductions to the edge of species’ climatic niches.