Identifying and explaining farms typologies based on strategic reaction to policy

In most studies, single policy reaction variables are explained through a number of personal, family or structural variables. The objective of this paper is to identify consistent “strategic change profiles” across EU farm (-households), based on stated intentions of change under different policy scenarios. The analysis is carried out using a multinomial logit model (MNL) over a sample of over 2000 farms. Qualitative (contract and chain-based) expansion strategies are better explained than exit and quantitative expansion strategies. The single farm payment amount, labour and living on farm are the most relevant and consistent explanatory variables.