The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species’ distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases (“greening”), and more recently decreases (“browning”). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on “greening”, “browning” and “stability/no change”. We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.