Cancer mortality trend analysis in Italy, 1980-2010, and predictions for 2015

Aims: To update cancer mortality statistics in Italy, analyzing 1980-2010 trends, and to predict 2015 mortality rates. Methods: World Health Organization cancer mortality and census data were extracted to calculate death rates for 30 cancer sites from 1980 to 2010. Trends were analyzed with joinpoint regression and predicted 2015 deaths rates were computed. Results: In 2010 in Italy, there were 175,046 cancer deaths (98,847 men and 76,199 women), with total mortality rates, respectively, of 138.22 and 82.6/100,000. The leading cause of cancer death in men was lung cancer (25,457 deaths, 36.2/100,000), whereas in women it was breast cancer (12,115 deaths, 15.38/100,000). Total cancer mortality in men has been decreasing since the late 1980s, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.8 in 1994-2010. In women, total cancer mortality rates decreased throughout the study period, with an EAPC of -1.1 in 1992-2010. Trends in mortality were decreasing for most cancers in both sexes. Only pancreatic and lung cancer trends in women were unfavorable. Total numbers of predicted cancer deaths in Italy for 2015 increased to 102,647 men and 82,047 women; however, the predicted rates decreased in men (129.1/100,000), while remaining stable in women (82.6/100,000). Conclusions: Mortality rates for the most common cancers in Italy showed favorable trends that are likely to continue in the near future, with the exception of lung cancer mortality in women. Maintaining these trends requires continuous and improved control of tobacco, alcohol, and nutrition/overweight. Further improvements in diagnosis and treatment may also have a significant impact on cancer mortality.