The application of Legendre Polynomials to model muscularity and body condition score in primiparous Italian Simmental cattle

The aim of the present study was to develop a model to predict muscularity and body condition score (BCS) during the lactation of Italian Simmental dairy cows in Emilia Romagna herds. A total of 2656 Italian Simmental primiparous cows from 324 dairy herds were linear classified between 2002 and 2020. Lactation curves for muscularity and BCS were modelled for each cow using random regression model. The model included the fixed effects of age at linear scoring and days in milk modelled with a Legendre polynomial, and the random effects of herd-year of classification, cow and days in milk for each cow modelled with Legendre polynomials. The most parsimonious model included a fixed cubic Legendre polynomial and a random linear polynomial for cow effects. Results indicated that, on an average, BCS nadir was anticipated to that of muscularity, and, in both cases, this moment was around the lactation peak, when animals have the greatest nutrients requirement. After this period, both BCS and muscularity recovered up to post-partum levels. Moreover, after the 9 month of lactation, the absolute growth rate of muscularity and BCS was negative, suggesting that late-gestating cows could potentially enter a phase of body conformation loss. Results reported in the current research indicate that random regression using Legendre polynomials can be successfully employed to predict muscularity and BCS during the lactation of dairy cows.