A framework for the assessment of seismic damage scenarios in the Emilia Romagna region, Italy

In the immediate aftermath of an earthquake, it is essential that emergency plans and damage scenarios are available so that civil protection agencies and risk-management organizations can detect and contain critical situations. These tools rely on the knowledge of the specific features of the potentially affected area, both in terms of intrinsic characteristics (e.g. morphology, near surface geology, etc.) and of elements at risk (e.g. building typologies, population distribution, etc.). All these pieces of information are combined in seismic-risk or damage scenario assessment procedures. This paper presents a framework developed for estimating seismic damage scenarios for the Emilia Romagna region in Northern Italy. Models for estimating ground-motion shake maps, based on regional attenuation relationships, spatial correlation models and soil data are first presented. These maps, which are computed considering different ground-motion intensity measures, are then combined with data on the spatial distribution of buildings, and fragility models. In order to consider the different sources of uncertainty, i.e. ground-motion intensity, definition of the fragility models, etc., a Monte Carlo simulation approach is used for estimating the distribution of buildings with different damage levels in each municipality. Finally, the paper presents comparisons with damage data observed after the 2012 Emilia earthquake.