A Procedure For Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Which Allows To Account For Poisson Or Non-Poissonian Models

This paper presents an approach for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, which is developed on the basis of the following concept: the seismic hazard can be represented in terms of an Intensity Measure, which, through specific attenuation laws, is expressed, as a function g of magnitude MS and site-epicentre distance R. The procedure has been developed with reference to more than one and generically shaped seismic zones. The peculiarity of this procedure, which leads to the determination of probability functions of a selected ground motion parameter due to the seismic action at a specific site over a given observation time, resides in that (i) the occurrence of seismic events may be schematized either with the widely-used Poisson process or with more general Non-Poissonian models, and (ii) it allows a clear separation between different sources of randomness (aleatory and epistemic).