Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 104 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31– 5.44 104 subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.
Zehender g., Bernini F., Delogu M. , Cusi M.G. , Rezza G., Galli M., et al. (2009). Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic: A decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION, 9, 562-566 [10.1016/j.meegid.2009.02.007].
Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic: A decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years
DELOGU, MAURO;
2009
Abstract
Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 104 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31– 5.44 104 subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
