This paper describes a fuzzy set based approach for dealing with uncertainies in the assessment of “NaTech” events triggered by earthquakes. The methodology has been integrated within a general framework developed for the assessment of external hazard factors in industrial sites. The starting point is the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) at the site considered, in order to evaluate probabilities of occurrence of ground motions of different severity. Fragility curves are then derived for atmospheric storages, corresponding to different damage levels. For both seismic hazard and fragility curves, confidence intervals are derived, and fuzzy numbers are used to model uncertainties. The effects of these uncertainties on the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of local and societal risk indexes, caused by accidental scenarios triggered by seismic events, are evaluated for a case study refinery. The adopted QRA methodology allows for identification and the consequence assessment of all the possible scenarios, including possible domino events. The procedure has been implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA.

Effects of data uncertainty on the quantitative risk assessment of an industrial plant under seismic action

BURATTI, NICOLA;SAVOIA, MARCO;ANTONIONI, GIACOMO;COZZANI, VALERIO
2009

Abstract

This paper describes a fuzzy set based approach for dealing with uncertainies in the assessment of “NaTech” events triggered by earthquakes. The methodology has been integrated within a general framework developed for the assessment of external hazard factors in industrial sites. The starting point is the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) at the site considered, in order to evaluate probabilities of occurrence of ground motions of different severity. Fragility curves are then derived for atmospheric storages, corresponding to different damage levels. For both seismic hazard and fragility curves, confidence intervals are derived, and fuzzy numbers are used to model uncertainties. The effects of these uncertainties on the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of local and societal risk indexes, caused by accidental scenarios triggered by seismic events, are evaluated for a case study refinery. The adopted QRA methodology allows for identification and the consequence assessment of all the possible scenarios, including possible domino events. The procedure has been implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA.
L’Ingegneria Sismica in Italia
1
8
N. Buratti; B. Ferracuti; M. Savoia; G. Antonioni; V. Cozzani
File in questo prodotto:
Eventuali allegati, non sono esposti

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/84219
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact