An approach aimed to the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by escalation scenarios triggered by fire was developed. Simplified models for the estimation of the vessel time to failure (ttf) with respect to the radiation intensity on the vessel shell were obtained using a multi-level approach to the analysis of vessel wall failure under different fire conditions. Each vessel "time to failure" calculated by this approach for the specific fire scenario of concern was compared to a reference time required for effective mitigation actions and related to the escalation probability. The failure probability of each vessel was correlated to the probability of scenarios involving multiple vessel failure as a consequence of the primary fire, thus allowing a comprehensive assessment of domino scenarios triggered by fire. The application of the methodology to the analysis of several case-studies allowed the estimation of the quantitative contribution of escalation events triggered by fire to the overall individual and societal risk indexes. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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