Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study / Laura Alberici, Filippo Antonacci, Alessandro Arena, Angela Belvedere, Fabio Bernagozzi, Paolo Bernante, Pietro Bertoglio, Lorenzo Bianchi, Maria Bisulli, Barbara Bonfanti, Safia Boussedra, Jury Brandolini, Crescenzo Cacciapuoti, Stefano Cardelli, Riccardo Casadei, Matteo Cescon, Alessandro Cipolli, Riccardo Cipriani, Alfredo Conti, Luca Contu, Francesco Costa, Niccolo’ Daddi, Eugenia De Crescenzo, Pierandrea De Iaco, Alessandra De Palma, Massimo Del Gaudio, Anna Nunzia Della Gatta, Giampiero Dolci, Giulia Dondi, Matteo Droghetti, Sergio Nicola Forti Parri, Elena Garelli, Chiara Gelati, Giuliana Germinario, Federico A. Giorgini, Carlo Ingaldi, Elio Jovine, Kenji Kawamukai, Antonio Lanci Lanci, Raffaele Lombardi, Maria Elisa Lozano Miralles, Claudio Marchetti, Michele Masetti, Francesco Minni, Daniele Morezzi, Daniele Parlanti, Alice Pellegrini, Anna Myriam Perrone, Anna paola Pezzuto, Marco Pignatti, Gianluigi Pilu, Valentina Pinto, Gilberto Poggioli, Silvana Bernadetta Puglisi, Diego Raimondo, Matteo Ravaioli, Claudio Ricci, Sara Ricciardi, Francesco Ricotta, Roberta Rizzo, Angela Romano, Matteo Rottoli, Riccardo Schiavina, Renato Seracchioli, Matteo Serenari, Margherita Serra, Leonardo Solaini, Piergiorgio Solli, Gioia Sorbi, Mario Taffurelli, Marta Tanzanu, Achille Tarsitano, Marco Tesei, Gabriele Vago, Tommaso Violante, Simone Zanotti, Tommaso Frisoni. - In: BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY. - ISSN 0007-1323. - ELETTRONICO. - 108:9(2021), pp. 1056-1063. [10.1093/bjs/znab101]

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Laura Alberici;Filippo Antonacci;Alessandro Arena;Angela Belvedere;Paolo Bernante;Pietro Bertoglio;Lorenzo Bianchi;Maria Bisulli;Barbara Bonfanti;Safia Boussedra;Jury Brandolini;Crescenzo Cacciapuoti;Stefano Cardelli;Riccardo Casadei;Matteo Cescon;Alessandro Cipolli;Alfredo Conti;Luca Contu;Francesco Costa;Niccolo’ Daddi;Eugenia De Crescenzo;Pierandrea De Iaco;Massimo Del Gaudio;Anna Nunzia Della Gatta;Giampiero Dolci;Giulia Dondi;Matteo Droghetti;Chiara Gelati;Giuliana Germinario;Carlo Ingaldi;Elio Jovine;Antonio Lanci Lanci;Raffaele Lombardi;Maria Elisa Lozano Miralles;Claudio Marchetti;Francesco Minni;Daniele Morezzi;Daniele Parlanti;Alice Pellegrini;Anna Myriam Perrone;Anna paola Pezzuto;Marco Pignatti;Gianluigi Pilu;Valentina Pinto;Gilberto Poggioli;Diego Raimondo;Matteo Ravaioli;Claudio Ricci;Francesco Ricotta;Roberta Rizzo;Angela Romano;Matteo Rottoli;Riccardo Schiavina;Renato Seracchioli;Matteo Serenari;Margherita Serra;Leonardo Solaini;Mario Taffurelli;Marta Tanzanu;Achille Tarsitano;Marco Tesei;Gabriele Vago;Tommaso Violante;Tommaso Frisoni
2021

Abstract

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
2021
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study / Laura Alberici, Filippo Antonacci, Alessandro Arena, Angela Belvedere, Fabio Bernagozzi, Paolo Bernante, Pietro Bertoglio, Lorenzo Bianchi, Maria Bisulli, Barbara Bonfanti, Safia Boussedra, Jury Brandolini, Crescenzo Cacciapuoti, Stefano Cardelli, Riccardo Casadei, Matteo Cescon, Alessandro Cipolli, Riccardo Cipriani, Alfredo Conti, Luca Contu, Francesco Costa, Niccolo’ Daddi, Eugenia De Crescenzo, Pierandrea De Iaco, Alessandra De Palma, Massimo Del Gaudio, Anna Nunzia Della Gatta, Giampiero Dolci, Giulia Dondi, Matteo Droghetti, Sergio Nicola Forti Parri, Elena Garelli, Chiara Gelati, Giuliana Germinario, Federico A. Giorgini, Carlo Ingaldi, Elio Jovine, Kenji Kawamukai, Antonio Lanci Lanci, Raffaele Lombardi, Maria Elisa Lozano Miralles, Claudio Marchetti, Michele Masetti, Francesco Minni, Daniele Morezzi, Daniele Parlanti, Alice Pellegrini, Anna Myriam Perrone, Anna paola Pezzuto, Marco Pignatti, Gianluigi Pilu, Valentina Pinto, Gilberto Poggioli, Silvana Bernadetta Puglisi, Diego Raimondo, Matteo Ravaioli, Claudio Ricci, Sara Ricciardi, Francesco Ricotta, Roberta Rizzo, Angela Romano, Matteo Rottoli, Riccardo Schiavina, Renato Seracchioli, Matteo Serenari, Margherita Serra, Leonardo Solaini, Piergiorgio Solli, Gioia Sorbi, Mario Taffurelli, Marta Tanzanu, Achille Tarsitano, Marco Tesei, Gabriele Vago, Tommaso Violante, Simone Zanotti, Tommaso Frisoni. - In: BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY. - ISSN 0007-1323. - ELETTRONICO. - 108:9(2021), pp. 1056-1063. [10.1093/bjs/znab101]
Laura Alberici, Filippo Antonacci, Alessandro Arena, Angela Belvedere, Fabio Bernagozzi, Paolo Bernante, Pietro Bertoglio, Lorenzo Bianchi, Maria Bisulli, Barbara Bonfanti, Safia Boussedra, Jury Brandolini, Crescenzo Cacciapuoti, Stefano Cardelli, Riccardo Casadei, Matteo Cescon, Alessandro Cipolli, Riccardo Cipriani, Alfredo Conti, Luca Contu, Francesco Costa, Niccolo’ Daddi, Eugenia De Crescenzo, Pierandrea De Iaco, Alessandra De Palma, Massimo Del Gaudio, Anna Nunzia Della Gatta, Giampiero Dolci, Giulia Dondi, Matteo Droghetti, Sergio Nicola Forti Parri, Elena Garelli, Chiara Gelati, Giuliana Germinario, Federico A. Giorgini, Carlo Ingaldi, Elio Jovine, Kenji Kawamukai, Antonio Lanci Lanci, Raffaele Lombardi, Maria Elisa Lozano Miralles, Claudio Marchetti, Michele Masetti, Francesco Minni, Daniele Morezzi, Daniele Parlanti, Alice Pellegrini, Anna Myriam Perrone, Anna paola Pezzuto, Marco Pignatti, Gianluigi Pilu, Valentina Pinto, Gilberto Poggioli, Silvana Bernadetta Puglisi, Diego Raimondo, Matteo Ravaioli, Claudio Ricci, Sara Ricciardi, Francesco Ricotta, Roberta Rizzo, Angela Romano, Matteo Rottoli, Riccardo Schiavina, Renato Seracchioli, Matteo Serenari, Margherita Serra, Leonardo Solaini, Piergiorgio Solli, Gioia Sorbi, Mario Taffurelli, Marta Tanzanu, Achille Tarsitano, Marco Tesei, Gabriele Vago, Tommaso Violante, Simone Zanotti, Tommaso Frisoni
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