This paper is based on a data set of 20 Italian regional high frequency business indicators proposed in Benni and Brasili (2006) and developed by RegiosS. The aim is to provide an analysis of the characteristics of regional cycles and their co-movements, covering the period 1993-2008. First, we measure the distances among the Italian regional business cycle by using the cohesion measure proposed by Croux, Forni and Reichlin (2001) both on the whole sample and on two sub-samples of the indicators, in order to evaluate if co-movements have increased recently, or if they are affected by the adoption of the Euro currency. Second,we evaluate, along the sample and for all regions, a simple MS-AR in order to observe and compare each region's peaks and troughs. A clustering of regions according to leads and lags properties versus the national business cycle is observed and the emergence of some "counter cyclical" regions and macro-areas is discussed too. These indicators could be useful in policy evaluation and structural analysis.
La continua crescita economica nel Secondo dopo guerra e una caduta delle fluttuazioni hanno condotto ad un'impostazione detta "growth cycle", cioe' l'identificazione dei movimenti ciclici degli indicatori come deviazione dalla componente storica di "trend".L'obiettivo di questo lavoro è fornire una misura delle differenze nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane fondata su indicatori, costruiti per ciascuna regione, a frequenza mensile, e di mettere in evidenza come essi consentono di valutare la coerenza nell'andamento dell'attività economica delle diverseregioni e che questo possa costituire un importante strumento di politica economica.
Brasili A., Brasili C (2009). Sincronia e distanza nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane. POLITICA ECONOMICA, 25(2), 211-232 [10.1429/30317].
Sincronia e distanza nel ciclo economico delle regioni italiane
Brasili C
2009
Abstract
This paper is based on a data set of 20 Italian regional high frequency business indicators proposed in Benni and Brasili (2006) and developed by RegiosS. The aim is to provide an analysis of the characteristics of regional cycles and their co-movements, covering the period 1993-2008. First, we measure the distances among the Italian regional business cycle by using the cohesion measure proposed by Croux, Forni and Reichlin (2001) both on the whole sample and on two sub-samples of the indicators, in order to evaluate if co-movements have increased recently, or if they are affected by the adoption of the Euro currency. Second,we evaluate, along the sample and for all regions, a simple MS-AR in order to observe and compare each region's peaks and troughs. A clustering of regions according to leads and lags properties versus the national business cycle is observed and the emergence of some "counter cyclical" regions and macro-areas is discussed too. These indicators could be useful in policy evaluation and structural analysis.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
