Impact of barrier layer on winter-spring variability of the southeastern Arabian Sea

In the present study, we use a coupled model to evaluate the effect of shallow salinity stratification on the sea surface temperature (SST) and on the monsoon onset in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). A 100-year control experiment shows that the coupled model reproduces the main climatic features in this region in terms of SST, precipitation and barrier layer (BL). A 100-year sensitivity experiment (where BL effects have been suppressed in the SEAS) shows that BL enhances the spring SST warming by 0.5 degrees C, and leads to a statistically significant increase of precipitation in May (3 mm/day) linked to an early (10 to 15 days) monsoon onset. This suggests that the BL extent may be a useful predictor of the summer monsoon onset in the area with a two-month lead-time. However the effect above is mostly concentrated in the SEAS, and there is no significant impact over continental India.