Use of Atmospheric Modeling for Megacity Urban Planning: The Case of Temperature Positive Anomalies in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area, Brazil

This study aims at the evaluation of the ability of the atmospheric mesoscale model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) to predict heat wave episodes in the RMRJ, Brazil. The results obtained by using the WRF were compared with observed data of air temperature at 2 meters, showing a slight tendency of the simulated results to underestimate the observed temperatures. On the other hand, the results of the simulation adequately reproduced the daily temperature cycle. In the period of analysis, the observed data indicated values of maximum temperatures about 5 ° C above the climatological means of each sub-region of the RMRJ, which characterizes episodes of a heat wave. The synoptic analysis indicated that the temperature anomalies occurred as a consequence of the meteorological configuration in the synoptic scale of the ASAS in low levels and a high of geopotential in average levels of the troposphere. The study demonstrates that the meteorological characterization together with the computational modeling of the atmosphere is a potential strategy for urban planning and public management of urban areas, capable of detecting and predicting the area’s most susceptible to the occurrence of positive temperature anomalies in Megacities.